The year 2019 – a turning point in the history of the fashion industry? According to the study “The State of Fashion 2019” it will be. On the basis of a global survey of around 300 fashion managers, online news magazine “The Business of Fashion” (BoF) and business and strategy consultancy McKinsey & Company have compiled forecasts for the development of the industry in the coming year. One thing is certain: for the first time in centuries, China will overtake the USA as the largest fashion market in the world. And industry growth is expected to decrease to 3.5 to 4.5 percent; in 2018 it was 4 to 5 percent. Slowing economic growth and political changes like Brexit are leave people pessimistic, with many of the people surveyed citing “dealing with volatility, uncertainty and shifts in the global economy” as their primary concern for 2019. 42 percent expect that industry conditions will worsen in the coming year.
And the new requirements are leaving the industry with no time to rest. According to the study, even more adaptability, speed and digital expertise will be demanded of fashion players in the future. As a consequence of this, nearshoring , bringing production closer to the point of use, is set to increase. The study also identifies ten consumer and economic trends that provide incentives for the industry to act. According to the “Indian Ascent” trend, Indian will become an important location due to its growing middle class – as a production sector but also as a consumer market. The “End of Ownership” trend is predicting a change in consumer behaviour and a longer lifespan of clothing thanks to repair and rental services. “Getting Woke ” describes the younger generations’ awareness of social and environmental causes.
“The fashion industry will always be an industry where the winner takes it all,” says Achim Berg, Senior Partner and expert in the fashion and luxury goods industry at McKinsey. Only in the luxury and value segment does he see above-average growth potential. Brands like Nike, LVMH and Inditex are in the top 20 of “super winners”, which make up 97 percent of the industry’s overall value creation. In 2010 this share was just 70 percent.
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Study: The State of Fashion 2019
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